Cas will canter back to Super League

Not that any of you will be surprised.








Last night's televised demolition of Doncaster Lakers set the benchmark for the rest of the National League promotion contenders and Doncaster, if you believe the people that run the club, were supposed to be one of them.

The Tigers racked up 66 points from 13 tries, starving Doncaster of possession throughout the game, forcing errors and clincally finishing their attacking plays.

Having spoken to people at the club prior to the National League kicking-off, it's clear the people at Welford Road are on a mission. The squad is right and the off-field operation looks to be moving in the right direction, with a new home at Glasshoughton in the pipe-line. Unusually for a Rugby League club, they're also thinking long-term. Having had to patch up a Super League squad in the space of a few months last season, it's evident that Super League recruitment has already begun. The squad is filled with quality, not least with Awen Guttenbeil and Danny Brough committing to the club despite last years relegation and as evidenced last night, the club's junior ranks are starting the bare fruit.

Widnes will obviously have something to say about this and it would be easy to forget how they dismantled Leigh last week. Whilst Castleford will end the regular season at the top of the tree, promotion does ultimately come down to one day in October at Headingley.

As for Doncaster, if that is a potential Super League franchise then perhaps it's time for a rethink on the whole concept. The club does have a stadium that would be the envy of certain Super League clubs and the pre-match entertainment is very much reminiscent of the "Bullmania" that has made Bradford famous, but the playing side is a long way from the required standard. The club made the decision to go full-time this season and so far, it's not paying off. Super League in 2009? They've got no chance.

Tigers out of the Woods?

It's been revealed today that relegated Castleford arn't going to be taking Saturday's result lying down.






The Tigers Chief Executive Richard Wright is planning to meet with Red Hall officials to discuss the posibility of expanding Super League to thirteen teams, a move which, if approved would give the Tigers a stay of execution. At present, the Tigers relegation will be confirmed if either of the competition favourites Hull KR or Widnes win the National League Grand Final in October. Only unlikely victory for Batley or Whitehaven can save Cas.

Wright believes that Castleford are an "asset" to Super League but, seeing as he's their Chairman, one would hardly expect him to say otherwise. Whilst relegation is a shame for the club and the town, Wright's comments may not endear him to the rest of the league, not least the supporters of relegation and the other 12 clubs, who would all have to take a hit in their Sky TV money.

The BBC's Dave Woods has also jumped on the bandwagon, but has gone one further by asking for a fourteen team league.
Again, the familiar line of Cas being a "traditional" club has been troted out, and the possitive attendances at the Jungle have been alluded to, but Woods is missing one major point.

Assuming each squad has 20 quality players, by virtue of the 20:25 ruling, that is potentially another 40 quality players that have to be found in the space of less than five months. Castelford's current side would need to be rebuilt even if they did remain in the league, as many players will have already signed contracts with new clubs prior to Saturday, whilst Hull KR or Widnes would have to turn a NL1 side into a Super League side in a similar timeframe.
The only way that two sides could prepare a side for 2006 would be to head to the South Pacific.
In a season where the presence of Kolpak players has already been bemoaned, Woods seems to be advocating the introduction of more. The current talent pool in Britain cannot sustain 14 Super League clubs. Top clubs want to keep hold of their Senior Academy stars and whilst the Salary Cap permits, they will. The only way to increase the talent pool is to eliminate the need for Kolpak players and encourage youth development and that means abolishing automatic relegation.

In an ideal world, Woods would be right. A fourteen team elite competition contested with the best of British with no consiquences for promoting youth development. Unfortunatly, we don't live in an ideal world. Super League doesn't have the players, the finance or the system in place to properly support two extra sides.

The Value of Relegation

Saturday's result and Castleford's demotion to the National League has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many, not least those in WF10.





Wildcats coach John Kear had led his side to safety against the odds, bringing a halt to Castleford's short tenure back in Super League after their promotion last season but the fall-out from Saturday night has only just begun.

Tigers coach Terry Matterson has been against relegation for the best part of the season and he despises the notion even more now that fate has befallen him. Many have even gone as far to suggest that relegation should be suspended, claiming that no side deserved to go down and that infact, Castleford's 19 point haul means that this years relegated club was indeed the "best" worst team in the Super League era. Only Whitehaven or Batley could create that situtation now and so Matterson can bemoan the system all he wishes.
His arguments stand up too. Relegation encourages short-term thinking. The two sides that took the field as Wakefield played Bradford last week contained just ten players from 34 who qualified for Great Britain and of Wakefield's side from Saturday, only three players were of any interest to the onlooking GB boss Brian Noble, who became involved in a heated discussion on the subject in the Sky Sports studio.
The fear of relegation creates a fear for the clubs towards the bottom of the table from playing juniors from the Senior Academy. It's no coincidence that the bulk of young British talent currently ply their trade with the top three clubs; Leeds, Hull and St Helens - sides that are free from the threat of relegation.

For the clubs clinging on by their fingernails, throwing in a 19-year-old stand-off is simply not an option. Instead it's much easier to bring in the experienced heads of Julian O'Neill, Deon Bird or in Castleford's case, Brad Davis on short-term contracts to try and get yourself out of that mess.
That may be fine from a club point of view, but talent is going undiscovered because clubs don't have the time to bring teenagers up to Super League standard.

The introduction of the Kolpak ruling, which means that players of Fijian, Tongan, Samoan, Papua New Guinean and South African desent (amogst others) are excluded from any foreign quotas, has created a loophole that many club Chairmen are all to willing to expolit, but few can blame them when the very survival of the club can depend on Super League status.

Thankfully, the RFL has seen the iceburg and the introduction of a franchise system in 2009 will eliminate the need for clubs to fill their sides to the point of bursting with overseas players. Nobody wants to see the likes of Jamie Lyon, Shontayne Hape, Lesley Vainikolo, Ali Lauitiiti and Stacey Jones end up being forced out of the competition. They are the players that fans come esspecially to see, but what fans hate is to get the impression that players who have no real affinity to the club are keeping a potential superstar who has supported the club from childhood.

Another issue for contention since last night is the merit of the Les Catalans Dragons 'experiment'. Some have objected to the move from the start, particuarly those from Widnes who had to make way for the Dragons last year but their objections don't hold much water.

The Dragons have had minimal time, just over one year, to create a team capable of competing in the league, a fanbase capable of sustaining a Super League side and the infrastructure required to pass Super League standards. Cas will claim that they had even less time, since they couldn't recruit players until after last years Grand Final but the bulk of the side remained to feature in Super League. The Tigers eventually only ended the season three points ahead to the French side, despite the Dragons having nothing to play for much of the closing stages of the season.

People also bemoan the Dragons from a financial perspective, with the small minded view that Catalans don't "bring any fans", which is a stupid point on two counts.
Firstly, the Catalans home average attendence of 6,542, which currently stand proudly of those of Wakefield (5,447), Huddersfield (5,398), Harlequins (4,917) and high-flying Salford (4,820).
Secondly, to be perfectly blunt, clubs shouldn't be reliant on visting supporters making the journey and topping up the numbers.

It was often claimed that you could get an idea of a club's true support base by their attendance against London / Harlequins, by virtue of the fact that not many people made the long trips up the M1 or M6.


So last season when the Broncos went to the Halliwell Jones, the marketing team at Warrington actually went and did some work (often unheard of in some Rugby League marketing offices) and instead of shrugging their shoulders and saying "Oh well, lets see what London bring", like Salford Football Director Steve Simms, they went out and came up with the radical idea of getting the locals through the door. The result was a crowd that bettered those against many more local sides, including rivals Widnes.
The Catalans arn't to blame and those arguing otherwise are clutching at straws. They have more home-grown payers than most British sides, they have earned the game greater expsure across the UK and Europe and they have offered the British fan something new. They arn't to blame for Castleford's demise and as I have said before, the Tigers could have avoided Saturday's finale months ago.

Only a minor miracle in the NL1 play-offs will save the Tigers and it is a shame that so many people have put in so much hard work, as opitimised by the emotion shown by captain Danny Nutley at the final whistle. It's just the men from the Jungle have been the victims of an increasingly flawed system. Sky loved this weekend. It's the kind of car-crash TV that makes TV executives rub their hands with glee, but this whole season has been focused on mediocraty.
End relegation, bring in stability and give clubs the opportunity to step up to a level playing field throughout Super League. That way we can celebrate sucess, rather than gawp at failure.

Preview to Survival Saturday

It was predicted a few weeks ago, but Wakefield and Castleford will lock horns on Saturday for Sky Sports' car-crash TV extravagansa.








The situation is as simple as they come and the consequences are as serious as they come. The loser on Saturday will drop out of Super League. There are no other results to consider, no complicated calculations to be done, just one game and one result.

John Kear is just 80 minutes from the great escape of keeping a once doomed Wakefield in Super League after three wins from the last five, with only a loss at St Helens and narrow defeat at home to Leeds blemishing that record.
Castleford on the other hand, are coming off the back of a defeat at Salford and despite looking safe many weeks ago, Terry Matterson's men are now the bookies favourites for the drop after just one win from the last six.

A big crowd is expected to turn up at Belle Vue for what is set to be a pulsating encounter. Mistakes are an inevitability which could determine a players career, but there will also be pride, passion and emotion in evidence for a clash which makes perfect TV before the ball is even kicked.

As for the result, Wakefield are favourites and rightly so. I predicted the Wildcats to complete the houdini act last week and I'll stick by that. Kear knows how to win one-off games and Saturday is a cup final in all but name. The Tigers have been feeling the heat and Terry Matterson in particular looks a lot more nervous than his counterpart at Belle Vue.

Wakefield will emerge victorious in a game that should be impossible to take your eyes off.

Two Games to Go - Who's Slipping Through the Trap Door?

Round 26 has been and gone, the results are in and those at the Jungle and the Galpharm are already breathing a huge sigh of relief.





Whilst Castleford fans, players and Molly the Dog were busy congratulating each other on a job well-done against Quins, Wakefield were recovering from an inevitable defeat at St Helens.
But were the Tigers celebrating too soon? Saturday nights scenes were more like a minor premiership victory parade than that of a side that sits three points above the relegation zone.

The current table stands as such after 26 games:

8. Huddersfield - 20pts (-140 diff)
9. Harlequins - 19pts (-290 diff)
10. Castleford - 19pts (-371 diff)
11. Wakefield - 16pts (-146 diff)

At first glance, it looks like Wakefield will be the ones plying their trade in National League 1 next season, but it's not that simple, as Wakefield will play host to Castleford on the last day of the season at Belle Vue.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, heres theonepointer's predictions.

Round 27:

• I expect a desperate Wakefield to cause an upset and win at Odsal against an out-of-sorts and unconvincing Bradford.
• Salford need to book a play-off place and they will beat Castleford.
• If Catalans turn up, they could turn home advantage into points against Huddersfield. Unfortunatly, they won't turn up and Huddersfield will win.
  
• Wigan will beat Harlequins at The Stoop.

Round 28:

• Quins will probably beat Salford. Brian McDermott will have his side fired up for a game that will keep them in Super League.
• Bradford will overcome Huddersfield.
• That leaves the Wildcats against the Tigers and to be honest, I'd be tempted to go for Wakefield. Home advantage will be key and to be perfectly honest, I rate John Kear as the better coach. The win for Wakefield for me.
  

If that turns out to be true, then that leave the following table:

8. Huddersfield - 22pts
9. Harlequins - 21pts
10. Wakefield- 20pts
11. Castleford- 19pts

So on that basis, it'll be goodbye to Castleford. I do believe it'll go down to the last day of the season and if I were a Cas fan, I would be seriously worried if they leave the Willows with nothing next week.

Matterson Feeling the Heat

It was all going so well for the Tigers. A well-fought win over Leeds five weeks ago was surely enough to complete the Super League survival act?
Not so it would seem and it sounds like the strain is starting to take it's toll on those at the Jungle.



Coach Terry Matterson's comments about the relegation situation appear not that of a man who is concerned with the general running of Super League, but more the pleas for help from a man feeling the pressure.

The Tigers haven't claimed a single point since their victory over Leeds nearly six weeks ago and after four straight defeats, Castleford go into the final three games of the season just one point ahead of Wakefield, the side they play on what will most likely be a last day relegation decider at Belle Vue.

At first glance, Matterson's comments about the relegation system seem justified and to be perfectly honest, they are not ills that haven't been pointed out before. Problems such as the uncertainty for the clubs at the bottom end of Super League and the difficulty faced by the club promoted from the National League to get together a Super League quality team in the space of just three months have been much discussed and, in that respect, Castleford have been somewhat fortuitous, being able to take advantage of the unexpected availabilities of Danny Ward and Danny Brough.

All such comments may just seem fairly innocuous but it's the timing of these comments, with just three games to go, that show that Matterson isn't just expressing a concern, but more appealing for assistance from those at Red Hall and it seems a shame that a coach who has deservedly earned great admiration for what he has done on limited resources at The Jungle should speak out like this.
The facts are simple. Castleford have been well aware of the relegation criteria since they won the National League Grand Final last October and the fact also remains that they could have ensured their survival some weeks ago.
Granted, few would expect them to be able to pick up points against runaway leaders St Helens or get something from a trip to Odsal but by the same token, they would have been expected to pick up points against fellow strugglers Huddersfield and at least get on the scoresheet at home to an 11-man Wakefield side.

With the bottom clubs all playing each other in the coming weeks and Wigan, Wakefield and Harlequins both finding some form going into the final furlong, Matterson is rightly worried. Granted, some players will return from injury for the game against Harlequins but a defeat in that game could set the Tigers on the slippery slope down to National League One.